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A Fun Game: Guess the Outcome of 15 Tests

November 19th, 2009 by Lars Johansson

There is no better way to convince people in your organization about the value of analysis and testing than to let them compete against each other. For that purpose I have created a guessing game based on fifteen tests. Most were run as A/B tests, but some were multivariate tests where I only show the winning combination and the original design.

Will you get more correct answers than a monkey (randomized), a HiPPO (Highest Paid Person’s Opinion—in this case a CTO), a usability expert, an art director, a web analyst, and my mom (a retired elementary school teacher)? Find out!

It’s a fun game and the point is to prove that a guess is just that—a guess. Trust me, a monkey would probably beat me too sometimes! After all, this is why we test. Tests will give you a result based on lots of people and not based on a single person’s opinion.

So, what are you waiting for? Play the guessing game!

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Posted in Test and Target | 12 Comments »



Comments

    MyAvatars 0.2
  1. Gissa vilken variant som presterade bäst! | Webbanalys Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 1:17 pm

    [...] Spela spelet på WebAnalysts.Info Förslag på annan läsning:eMetrics Stockholm 2009Nyheter i Google Website OptimizerTesta det som testas bör [...]

    2. MyAvatars 0.2
  2. Stephane Hamel Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    Lars, that’s a FANTASTIC idea! Fun, instructive, and unbiased. I love the fact you gathered examples from different agencies, using different tools, and different types of sites.

    I will certainly make good use of this :)

    Stéphane

    3. MyAvatars 0.2
  3. Lars Johansson Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 8:08 pm

    Thanks Stéphane. That’s what I tried to achieve. Glad to hear I succeeded! Please do use as you see fit. :)

    4. MyAvatars 0.2
  4. Matthias Postel Says:
    November 20th, 2009 at 1:43 am

    Lars, that is awesome. We already tried it at our company. You think, you should know, but then…
    Very interesting results. :o )
    Tx, Matthias

    5. MyAvatars 0.2
  5. Bjørn Tscherning Hjulstad Says:
    November 20th, 2009 at 2:13 am

    Hear, hear! As it happended, my colleagues and I actually did a similar test earlier today – Anne Holland’s whichtestwon.com. And we had an interesting debate about experts’ chance of averaging higher than say, your mother. I’d say that you’ll need to do a lot of testing and really know your website/customers before you can even start to get a feeling for what will work or not. Good fun, and a good way to get our interaction designers to work more closely with our ecommerce advisors. And we must not forget the “inconclusive” outcome.. :)

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  6. Pre-Weekend Recap (week 47) – Onetomarket Says:
    November 20th, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    [...] A Fun Game: Guess the Outcome of 15 Tests Hoe sterk sta jij in je schoenen als Conversie Optimalisatie expert? In deze presentatie worden verschillende voorbeelden van A/B tests voorgeschoteld en jij mag raden welke uiteindelijk beter uit de bus is gekomen. Vooral in de laatste sheet schuilt een wijze les. [...]

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  7. How Good Is Your Instinct Or Do You Still Need To Test? | Thrivalytics Says:
    November 21st, 2009 at 2:43 am

    [...] “A Fun Game: Guess The Outcome Of 15 Tests” by Lars Johansson is an effective display of how little we know about how our customers behave and what makes them tick.  My opinion is that the closer you are to your business, the less you know about how your customer reacts to your marketing.  When working with the Sun Developer Network eCampaigns team, I had a colleague present a similar case study depicting which banner ads performed better.  It was an enlightening experience for all. [...]

    8. MyAvatars 0.2
  8. SEO ROI » A Reader’s Guide To 30+ Advanced Search Marketing Blogs Says:
    November 25th, 2009 at 3:09 pm

    [...] Web Analysts Web Business and Conversion Optimization Blog -While this site features some great content, it’s really oriented to hardcore web analytics guys and gals. They’re not overly enamored of jargon, but you need to have your thinking cap on to follow. (For more blogs on conversion, check out this preso and the firms who ran these tests.) [...]

    9. MyAvatars 0.2
  9. Mattias Malmnäs Says:
    November 27th, 2009 at 10:09 am

    Great stuff!
    I’ll challange my colleagues right away.

    Thanks Lars

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  10. Eine starke Idee: Mit einem Ratespiel Entscheider von A/B-Tests überzeugen :: smartmetrics - the contentmetrics web analytics blog Says:
    December 3rd, 2009 at 10:31 am

    [...] von Johansson entworfene Test besteht aus 15 Online-Seiten, die in jeweils zwei Variationen angezeigt werden (sie stammen aus [...]

    11. MyAvatars 0.2
  11. Eine starke Idee: Mit einem Ratespiel Entscheider von A/B-Tests überzeugen | Vertster Online Optimization Suite Says:
    December 8th, 2009 at 11:11 am

    [...] von Johansson entworfene Test besteht aus 15 Online-Seiten, die in jeweils zwei Variationen angezeigt werden (sie stammen aus [...]

    12. MyAvatars 0.2
  12. Loggenbloggen » Blog Archive » Ständig förbättring ger effekt Says:
    January 20th, 2010 at 2:36 pm

    [...] Om du vill testa hur bra du förstår besökarnas behov, gissa utfallet av 15 A/B test här. [...]






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